四川盆地天然气藏产量预测的实践与认识

AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE PRODUCTION RATE PREDICTION OF NATURAL GAS RESERVOIRS IN SICHUAN BASIN AND ITS PRACTICE.

按照天然气开发规划对产量预测的要求，本文对现有油气田产量预测模型的模拟和预测能力进行评价，从中选择适宜四川盆地不同类型气藏动态特点的３种预测模型，并给出这些模型的应用条件，还对Ａｒｐｓ双曲递减方程数值求解方法做了部分改进。预测结果与定性分析基本相符，此模型已在四川石油管理局天然气开发规划预研究中得到应用。

According to the production rate prediction required in the plan of natural gas development, currently proposed forecast models are evaluated and three models are selected to predict the future production rates forgas reservoirs (fracture systems) and fields in Sichuan basin. There is an improvement to the Arps's hyperbolic solutoins. Based on the result of performing these models with actual data taken from the different gas reservoir (fracture systems ) and fields, the conditions and limits for these models are also presented. The estimated future producton rates for all the reservoirs (fracture systems) and fields, which is approximately consistant with the qualitative analysis, have been applied to the plan of natural gas development in Sichuan basin.