北美CHIHUAHUAN荒漠啮齿动物群落动态Ⅲ．变量的频次分布和预测

DYNAMICD OF THE RODENT COMMUNITY IN THE CHIHUAHUAN DESERT OF NORTH AMERICA Ⅲ.FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND PREDICTION OF VARIABLES

本文用ｘ￣２方和柯尔莫哥洛夫检验分析了北美Ｃｈｉｈｕａｈｕａｎ荒漠啮齿动物群落６个生态学变量的频次分布，并用移动平均和指数平滑方法拟合了这些变量的动态变化。结果显示：１）结合种群密度、生物量、物种均匀性和生物量均匀性服从正态分布；２）物种数和物种多样性的频次为向右偏斜的分布，无法用常见的理论分布来近似表示；３）单移动平均和双移动平均分别较好地描述了物种多样性和物种均匀性；４）其余４个变量可用单指数平滑来较好的描述。

he frequency distrbutions of the 6 ecological variables of the rodent community in the Chihuahuan Desert of southwestern North America were verified using the chi-square test and Kormorgorov test.And moving averages and exponential smoothing methods were employed to predict dynamics of the 6 community variables, The results reveal that:1)joint population density,biomass,species evenness and biomassevenness had a normal distributiOn;2 )fre-quency distribution of number and diversity of species was skewed to the right(skewness<0), no common theoretical probability distributions could describe these two variables ;3)sin-gle moving averages was a better model for predicting fluctuations of species diversity and dou-ble moving averages for that of species evenness; 4)Single exponential smoothing fitted dy-namics of the other variables well。