径流的趋势分析和概率预测

Trend Analysis and Probability Prediction of Annual Runoff

对永定河流域的官厅水库和汾河流域的汾河水库１９５０年以来水库入流的趋势变化进行了研究，并对引起这一变化的气象因子和人类活动影响因素作了分析。研究结果表明，降水的多年波动在一段时期可能出现的趋势变化以及流域内农业、林业和城市用水的逐年增长是影响径流趋势变化的主要因素。根据历史资料和今后人类活动的可能情况，对未来水平年的径流变化进行了概率预测。

The paper analyses the trend of annual runoff series for Guanting Reservoir of Yongding River and Fenhe Reservoir of Fenhe River.The meteorological factors and human activities resulting in the trend are studied.The research results show that the main factors affecting the trend of annual runoff are the trend of precipitation corresponding fluctuation of precipitation during the some periods and the increasing of agricultural. industrial,forestrial and domestic water use in the basin.According to historical data and possible human activities of the basin under study in the future,the predicted results of long trem annual runoff are presented.