实时洪水预报系统应用中的两个问题及解决方法

Two Problems in the Application of Realtime Flood Prediction Systems and Sloving Methods

对于越来越多流域建立的实时洪水预报系统和防洪决策支持系统，洪水预报的精度是非常重要的．但在实际运用中，有些流域雨量站类型和雨量站报汛方式与洪水预报系统对降雨信息的要求并不完全一致，从而使系统在投入实际应用时感到困难．另外，在干旱半干旱地区，大洪水的资料较少，建立准确的洪水预报数学模型不太容易，再由于某些地域人类活动对下垫面的影响较大，根据历史资料建立起来的洪水预报模型很可能会带来较大的误差．本文以汾河中游段洪水预报系统为例，针对系统在应用中存在的这些问题进行分析研究，并探讨通过改进雨量站网的设备和管理，用数学方法对雨量信息及洪水预报进行实时校正来提高洪水预报的精度．

The precision of the flood prediction is very important to more and more realtime flood prediction systems and flood control decision support systems in many river basins. But actually,the work type of rainfall stations can not completely conform to the requirments of the rain information for the flood prediction systems,so that it is difficult to use these systems. In addition,there are a few materials of the large floods in semi-arid and arid areas,it is difficult to work out a precise mathematic model of flood prediction,in the meanwhile, because of the more effect of the activities of mankind on the landforms,the model based on historial materials possibly results in more errors. Using the example of the flood prediction system of Fenhe River midstream,we try to study these problems mentioned above,and find some metheds to improve devices and management of rainfall stations. Using some mathmatics models to rectify the rain data and flood predictions on realtime for improve the precision of the flood prediction.