多元随机变量的条件概率计算方法及其在水文中的应用

A method for estimating the conditional probability of multi-random variables and its application in hydrology

本文根据事件积原理，提出了一种解析方法难以解决的计算多元随机变量（随机变量的分布是任意的）的条件概率方法和步骤．运用该方法，可以计算出多条河流洪（枯）水遭遇的概率，从而为水利工程规划方案的合理选择提供依据．

On the basis of product theory of random events,the paper proposes a method for estimating the conditional probability of multi- random variables with arbitrary distributions.The conditional probability is difficult to be calculated by analytic method.The probability of floods(or low water)combination on rivers can be estimated with this method,thus providing the basis for the reasonable determination of water conservancy project plans.