河流污染带的随机模拟方法

A Method of Stochastic Simulating River Pollution Zone

根据随机理论，推导了一个描述污染带变化的概率模型，并采用Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ抽样法对其求数值解。该随机模型的解是一个随机场，实例计算表明，它的解能够反映任一计算点的浓度变化趋势及范围，并能够给程度等值线附加上概率的意义，表现了在不确定因素的影响下，污染带随机变化的情况。

A stochastic model for simuating pollution zone in a river is deduced according to the stochastictheory.Numerical solution of the model is maed by using Monte-Carlo sampling method.Its solution is astochastic field. It is showed by a real case that the model can describe the main trend and changing range ofpollutant’sconcentration at any calculating point,and the probability is added to the isopleth of the pollutant’sconcentration.