地震危险性分析冈布尔方法的宏观实证性检验

Experimental Macro-test of the Gunble Method in Seismic Risk Analysis

地震危险性分析冈布尔方法具有简明、快速而准确的特征。前两个特征似乎已在文献（１）中得以澄清，后一特征将在本文的研究中证实。根据公认明清以来历史地震目录大体完整的事实，作出“１９８１年版”的四川及邻区乃至全国范围的两个地震烈度区划，都以几近精确的水平，通过了其后１０年间地震实践的检验。本文还讨论了该方法与抗震设防、地震保险的接口关系，以及它与地震地质、地震危险性分析科内尔方法的协调性接口关系。

The Gunble method in seismic risk analysis has simple and clear,quick and accuratecharacteristics, The two former characteristics have be expounded in the document[1].The finalcharacteristic is proved in this paper.According to roughly complete fact of historical earhtquakesoccurred since the Ming and Qing Dynasty,the two seismic intensity regionalizations published in1981 in Sichuan and neighboorhood and in the range of all over the country are abort the samelevel.They passed the test of earthquakes occurred during 10 years after that time;The contactrelationship between the method with earthquake resistance protection and seismic safety is dis-cussed in this paper. We also discussed the harmoniousness contact relationship between themethod with seismologeology and the Kinebe method of seismic risk analysis.