四川深井水位同震阶变异常与地震预报

Coseismic Spring Anomaly of Deep-hole Water-level in Sichuan and Earthquake Prediction

根据笔者提出强震同震阶变异常与新区强震有密切关系的观点，就１９９４年９月１６日台湾海峡７．６级地震，四川会理川—１８＃、石棉川—０２＃水位点观测到这一强震同震阶变异常的突出事件于１９９４年１０月作出“今冬明春，四川省西南部及云南、缅甸相邻地区，可能发生６～７级地震危险”的预报意见。结果在所提出的预报时段和预报地区内，发生了缅甸北部密支那６．３级，四川省西南部沐川县５．７级、５．１级及云南省南部金平县５．６级地震，取得了较好的预报效果。

The author put forward the viewpoint of the close relationship between the coseismic springanomaly of strong earthqtiake and the future strong earthquake in new area in《Coseismic springanomaly of deep-hole water-level in Sichuan caused by strong earthquake and strong earth-quake prediction in new area》research report accomplished in the begining of 1994.According tothe coseismic spring anomaly of the Chuan-18 well in Huili and the Chuan-02 well in Shimiancaused by Sept.16,1994 M7. 6 Taiwan Straits earthquake,the author predicted in Oct.1994that Any M6─ 7 earthquake will occur in the south-west of Sichuan or the neighbouring areaof Yunnan and Burma in this winter and next spring.At result,the M6.3 Burma earthquake,the M5.7,M5.1 Muchuan earthquakes in Sichuan and the M5. 6 Jinpin earthquake in Yunnanhave occurred respectively in prediction area in prediction period.The quite good resuIts havebeen obtained.