货物运输结构演变自组织机理的分析

RESEARCH ON MECHANISM OF SELF-ORGANIZING EVOLUTION OF TRANSPORT STRUCTURE AMONG FREIGHT TRANSPORT MODES

应用现代经济理论和系统论的基本原理，以整个工业化过程的长期经济发展为背景，通过大量实证分析，辨别货物运输结构演变的自组织机理，揭示出货物运输方式之间的内在关系，为交通运输的长远规划从理论上提供重要依据。

Based on the fundemental principles of the modern economics and the system theories,by applying the method of positive analysis,we recognize the mechanism of the self-organizing evolution of transport structure among the freight transport modes in the stage ofthe modern economic growth.The internal relationships between different freight transportmodes have been brought to light. For example,in the stage of modern economic growth,thelevel of development,the rise and fall of the different freight transport modes are hardly related to the competition and replacement among these modes.It is very important that theconclusions will contribute to the long-term planning of the transport system。