城市住房系统动态分析模型

Dynamic Model for the Urban Housing System in Shanghai

以定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法，综合运用各种定量分析方法，在详细分析上海城市住房系统的基础上，建立了以系统动力学方法为主体的城市住房系统动态分析模型．该模型包含有城市人口、经济、住房供给、住房需求、住房价格和住房资金等６个子块．模型运行结果表明，该模型能较真实全面地反映上海城市住房系统的实际状况，因而可用于大中城审住房问题研究和政策分析．

This paper, by means of theories and methods of systems analysis,makes a quantitative and dynamic study on urban housing problems and reform plans of the housing system in Shanghai, and comprehensive analysis of the influences and effects caused by housing system. Presented in the paper is a dynamic model for the urban housing supply and demand on the basis of system dynamics. The model has 6 sub-models including population, urban economy,housing supply, housing demand, housing prices and housing funds. Theapplication of the model shows that it has a positive corresponding reflection to the housing system in Shanghai.