应用ΣE^（2／3）－t曲线进行中期地震预报的研究

APPLICATION OF ΣE￣(2/3)-T CURVE IN MEDIUM TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

本文分析了我国１９００年以来Ｍ＿ｓ≥７．０级地震前与断层面总面积有关的参量ΣＥ￣（２／３）随时间的变化，探讨了运用ΣＥ￣（２／３）－ｔ曲线进行中期地震预报的可能性。通过分析某一地区历史地震的Ｅ￣（２／３）（ｔ）曲线，可以认识这一地区在过去若干年内地震的活动情况，并由此判断该区未来几年到几十年内地震活动的总状态；还可以根据Ｅ￣（２／３）（ｔ）曲线外推估计一个地区目前地震活动的可能强度。本文对Ｅ￣（２／３）（ｔ）曲线的基本形态作了粗略的分类，并试图对一个地区历史地震系列的Ｅ￣（２／３）（ｔ）曲线，用灾变论的观点确定该曲线的灾变条件和时间，以建立一种可应用的地震预报方法。

Some parameters related to energy of seismic waves E are applied extensively to earth-quake prediction as criteria of seismicity. In general,temporal variation of total areas of seismic.faults Σ S is used for earthquake prediction. In this paper, we ll use the parameter ΣE￣(2/3) relat-ed to Σ S to plot the curve of ΣE￣(2/3)-t and analyse its temporal variation before a large earth-quake. Analysing the curves of ΣE￣(2/3)-t before M_s≥7.0 earthquakes since 1900, we obtainthat the seismicities in past years in a region are known by the E￣(2/3)(t)curve of historical earth-quakes in the area, and from this the whole state of seismicity in the region from a few years toafew decades in future is estimated; the possible magnitude of recent seismicity in the regionmay be extrapolated and assessed from the curves. Also the basic shapes of E￣(2/3)(t) curves areclassified roughly.In this paper,the catastrophe condition and time of the E￣(2/3)(t) curve ofhistorical earthquake series in a region are determined from view of catastrophe theory,and themathematical and physical methods for earthquake prediction are found.