用相关－马氏链预测我国丝年产量的方法

Predicting on the Annual Silk Production by Correlation-Markov Chain

应用相关－马尔柯夫链方法预测我国丝年产量，既能考虑到蚕茧收购量和缫丝机产量等相关因素的影响，又能兼顾到自然、人为等随机因素的影响．在多元回归预测技术的基础上，运用马尔柯夫链模型，确定预测年份的产量状态和产量的预测区间值，得出未来年份的预测丝产量．

his paper applies correlation-Markov chain method to predict the annual silk Production.The method is not only in relation to correlative factors, but also to the random factors such as natural,man-made factors and so on.Based on the multivariable linear regtession,Markov chain model was used to know the states of the predictive years and the range of predictive production was obtained.This method makes the better use of historical datum,has the better regression and Predictive accuracy.It's desirable to the predictive effects.