杨树天牛发生量估计模型与抽样方法的研究

Study on Estimating Model and Sampling Method of the Occurrence Quantity of Poplar Longicorn

根据杨树天牛危害的特点，应用Ｃａｐｔｕｒｅ—Ｒｅｃａｐｔｕｒｅ模型，以两次抽样代替两次捕捉试验估计害虫发生量，精度在８０％以上。两次抽样采用系统抽样与随机抽样相结合的办法，构成系统随机样本，抽样强度在１５％以上，收到良好的效果。

A capture-recapture model is applied to estimate the occurrence quantity of poplar longicorn. There the two-time capture test was replaced by two-time sample surrey. Systematic random sample was adopted in sampling. When sampling rate is 15%, its estimating precision and practical precision outstripes 80 %.