小水电站年发电量风险分析

RISK ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL ENERGY PRODUCTION FOR SMALL HYDROELECTRIC STATION

在前人研究小水电站年发电量规律的基础上，指出了对其年发电量进行风险分析的必要性，同时首次提出了小水电站年发电量预测规则及风险分析的概念和方法，并结合实例进行了研究。提出的风险分析方法简便易行，可在众多的小水电站推广应用．

Based on the past research rdsults for the annual energy production law of small hydroelectric statian,this paper shows that risk analysis is necessary, and first presents the forecastingrule,the conceptions and method of risk analysis for them. At the same time, a real example is studied. Then it shows that the methods of paper are Very simple and useful and are able to be adopted and applied to a number of small Lydroelectric Stations.