模糊理论在上海浦东新区电力负荷预测中的应用

Application of Improved Fuzzy Model in Long term Load Forecasting for Pudong New Area of Shanghai

本文提出了一组模糊电力负荷预测模型，这里集中讨论了模糊聚类、相似优先比及最大贴近度三种方案，对它们分别在原理、算法和预测特点上加以介绍和比较，同时结合浦东新开发区的特点针对各方案的不足进行了改进，从而得到特别适用于开发区的改进模糊预测模型，最后以浦东开发区度长期电力负荷预测为例，验证了改进模糊预测法的有效性．

Opening and developing pudong of shanghai is an important decision of Chinese central government. It is a magnificient project across this century for us to make pudong into one of the first class international and modern city in the world.Undoubtedly,the constriiction of urban elec-tric networks must suit with this objective mentioned above. This paper presents the application of fuzzy theory in load forecasting in Pudong. The fuzzy precedent ratio model is adopted to process and calculate historic and future data of a few factors releted to electric power load.