单段函数残差辨识在疾病预测中的应用

Use of the Single Function Residual Identifiability in Predicting the Proportion of Disease

应用灰色系统 GM(1,1)模型可以预测疾病的发生情况。但是该模型有时预测精度不够高。单段函数残差辨识可以弥补其不足。单段函数残差辨识就是利用 GM(1,1)模型的残差信息,并在此基础上建立新的模型。本文介绍了单段函数残差辨识的原理、计算过程及其应用,结果表明比 GM(1,1)模型更有效、更精确。具有实际应用价值。

Using GM(1,1)Model of the Gray System toPredict the proportion of disease has a lot of adv-antages,but sometimes,the accuracy is not high.The method of the Single Function Residual Ident-ifiability can remedy this defect.The method meansto set up a new model on the basis of GM(1,1)Model by using residual information.This paper introduced the principle,caculativeprocess and application of the Single Function Re-sidual Identifiability.The applying result proved thatthe accuracy of using the method is higher thanthat of using GM(1,1)Model.The author thinksthe method is useful in epidemic disease research.