摘要
文章比较了各种气候模式对温室效应的估计，及其可能对中国气候的影响。分析和预测了太阳活动与火山活动的长期变化，在此基础上估计了未来可能产生的自然气候变化，结果表明，在未来５０年中太阳活动和火山活动均可能使气候变冷，因此，可能在一定程度上抵消因温室效应加剧而产生的变暖，但在２０１０年之后，温室效应可能逐步占据主导地位，到２０３０年全球平均气温可能比１９６１～１９９０年平均上升０．６℃以上，东亚地区的增温，可能比全球平均稍强。气候变暖后，东亚地区降水可能增加．但在我国北方，夏季干旱程度可能加大。
A comparison study was made of the modelling results from a series of models tocalculate the climatic impact of greenhouse effect,especially,its impact on the climateof China was studied.Meanwhile, the possible natural climatic change in the next 50years was also considered,which depends mainly on the long-term changes of solarirradiance and volcanism. It is shown that the cooling associated with the natural climaticvariability may compensate to some extent the warming caused by the strong incrementof greenhouse effect.However,the greenhouse effect will gradually predominate overthe two factors above mentioned after 2010 AD. Global mean temperature may rise over0.6℃in the 2030s in comparison with the annual mean of 1961～1990.It is possiblethat the temperature increment in East Asia will be greater than that averaged for theglobe.Annual precipitation will be increased in general over East Asia but summerdrought may be intensified in the northern China with increasing of evaporation anddecreasing of rainfall.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第3期333-342,共10页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
85-913-02课题<气候变化机理及未来50年中国气候变化预测的研究>专题资助
关键词
温室效应
全球变暖
气候预测
太阳活动
气候变化
Greenhouse effect
Global warming
Climatic prediction
Solar activity
Volcanism.
