辽西地区春播期间水分状况预测的研究

Forecast on soil water regime during spring sowing period in West Liaoning.

运用方差分析原理，对喀友试验区３０余年春播期间降水资料进行了分析．结果发现该期间的降水量存在着１４年及１０年变化周期．在此基础上，对试验区１９９２—２０００年春播期间降水量进行了预测。经过１９９２和１９９３年实际验证，预测值与实测值基本吻合，相对误差＜９％．根据降水量预测值和秋收后土层有效储水量，给出了春播时期土壤水分预测数学模型，并讨论了适于春播条件的土壤水分指标．

Based on the principle of variance analysis, the data of last 30 years precipitation duringspring sowing period in Kazuo region of West Liaoning are analysed. It is found that thereexist two variation cycles of precipitation within 14 and 10 years. On the basis of this, theprecipitation during spring sowing period of this region in 1992-2000 is forecasted.Through actual examination on the data of 1992 and 1993, the calculated values are in agreement with observated ones, the relative error being less than 9%. Based on the calculated values of precipitation and the effective soil water-storage capacity after harvest,mathematical models for forecasting soil moisture regime during spring sowing period areestablished, and soil moisture indices suited to spring sowing conditions are discussed.