摘要
运用方差分析原理,对喀友试验区30余年春播期间降水资料进行了分析.结果发现该期间的降水量存在着14年及10年变化周期.在此基础上,对试验区1992—2000年春播期间降水量进行了预测。经过1992和1993年实际验证,预测值与实测值基本吻合,相对误差<9%.根据降水量预测值和秋收后土层有效储水量,给出了春播时期土壤水分预测数学模型,并讨论了适于春播条件的土壤水分指标.
Based on the principle of variance analysis, the data of last 30 years precipitation duringspring sowing period in Kazuo region of West Liaoning are analysed. It is found that thereexist two variation cycles of precipitation within 14 and 10 years. On the basis of this, theprecipitation during spring sowing period of this region in 1992-2000 is forecasted.Through actual examination on the data of 1992 and 1993, the calculated values are in agreement with observated ones, the relative error being less than 9%. Based on the calculated values of precipitation and the effective soil water-storage capacity after harvest,mathematical models for forecasting soil moisture regime during spring sowing period areestablished, and soil moisture indices suited to spring sowing conditions are discussed.
出处
《应用生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
1995年第2期155-159,共5页
Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
基金
国家"八五"科技攻关项目
关键词
大气降水
春播期间
预测
Atmospheric precipitation, Variance analysis, Soil moisture, Semi-arid region.