油气管道的风险分析(续完)

Risk Analysis on Oil and Gas Pipeline(3)

如果管道发生事故,由于泄漏物的危险性及泄漏点的环境状况不同而产生后果的严重程度,用泄漏冲击指数表示,它取决于介质危险性和影响系数,介质危险分当前危险和长期危险,而影响系数由不同介质及人口状况确定。参考美国有关部门推荐的介质危险性评分及影响系数可评定出泄漏冲击指数,其值越大,危险性越高。根据引起管道事故的第三方破坏、腐蚀、设计、操作四方面原因的破坏指数和泄漏冲击指数,可确定管道的相对风险数在0～2000之间,其数值越高,越安全可靠,风险越低。通过对不同管道或同一管道不同区段相对风险数的积累,判断管道的风险状况,对于长期安全运行很有意义。用管道风险评估法对一条管道进行了实际评估,有利于管道工作者提高对风险评估的认识。

The consequent gravity at a pipeline failure,depending upon the hazard of leaking product and leaking surroundings, is expressed by the impact index of leakage, which is determined by medium risk and influence coefficient. The medium risk is divided into current risk and long-term risk, and the influence coefficient varies with medium and population in the area concerned. Leakage impact index can be evaluated with reference to the score of medium hazard and the influence coefficient recommended by relavent American institution. The higher the index, the higher its hazard. The relative risk score of pipeline, which can be determined by the damage index of the four causes of pipeline failure (third party damage, corrosion, design and operation) and leakage impact index, goes within 0 to 2000. The higher the score, the more safe the pipeline system, and the smaller the risk represented. By summing up the relative risk scores of different pipelines or the different sections of pipeline, we can determine the risk status of pipeline, as is of great value for long-term safe operation. The practice of evaluating a pipeline by means of risk scoring is advantageous to the cognition and application of risk evaluation in the field of pipeline industry.