预测10年尺度地震危险性的综合模型

Synthetic Prediction Model on Seismic Risk in 10 Years Term

本文依据信息量的定量判定方法，从分析地震地质和前兆因子与强震发生的关系出发，对各种因子所能提供的长期或１０年尺度强震危险的信息量作了估计。在此基础上，提出了１０年尺度强震危险性预测的综合概率模型，并以华北北部区域为例，说明了该综合概率模型在中－长期时间尺度预测中的可行性。

Based on the quantitative judgement method of the information and the analysis results for the relations between the seismogeology and precursors and strong earthquakes, the information of strong earthquake risk in the coming 10 years given by various precursors has been estimated. Therefore, a synthetic probability model for the prediction of the strong earthquake risk in the coming 10 years has been suggested. As a example, the result of the seismic risk in northern part of North China has been used to explain the feasibility of the synthetic probability model in medium-long-term earthquake prediction.