地震活动信息熵在地震危险区判定中的研究

Seismic Risk Region Determinated by Information Entropy

震例和实验指出，大震的孕育准备过程中，总是要出现小震活动时空分布随机性减少及有序性增大的过程。本文从现代统计物理学熵的概念出发，系统定义了反映地震活动分布有序性大小的信息熵，并通过分析新疆乌恰、西克尔、乌什及北天山玛纳斯地区的地震资料，探讨信息熵的动态变化与强震发生时间的关系及信息熵值的空间分布与强震发生地点的关系。研究表明，强震发生前地震区信息熵显著下降；震中附近的信息熵大大低于其周围地区。这两大特征对判定大震危险区及预测大震趋势具有重要参考意义。

During the preparatong process of a great earthquake, there are certain some patterns of less randomess but much orderness in space-time distribution of microearthquakes, which have been proved by seismic events and experiments. The paper trys to systematically analyse the dimension of entropy orderness in seismic distribution from the point of modern statistical physics. Relations of dynamic variations of information entropy with strong shock occurring time and entropy's space distributive value associated with strong shock occurring place were approached through seismic data from Wuqia, Xikar, Wushi and Manasi regions in Xinjiang. It is indicated that before strong earthquakes, the value of information entropy often drops obviously in seismic region, and generelly much lower in epicentral area than the surrounding regions. These two characters are of important significance in strong shock risk region determination and large shock tendency prediction.