四川活断层分段与强震危险性概率预测

Segmentation of Active Fault and Risk Probability Prediction of Strong Earthquakes in Sichuan Province

本文主要根据断层的几何结构、活动强度与断层上最大地震破裂长度等对四川境内几条主要活断层在晚第四纪，特别是全新世以来的活动性进行了分段，并采用概率复发模型对各活动段在未来３０年内强震的复发概率进行了预测。结果表明，鲜水河断裂带的恰叫段、乾宁段、色拉哈段，以及安宁河断裂带的西昌一冕宁段、野鸡洞段等发生７级以上地震的可能性较大。龙门山断裂带的茂汶－草坡以及安宁河断裂带上的小盐井段发生６级以上地震的可能性也是存在的。

Based on geometric structure, active strength and maximum seismic rupture length along fault. this paper gives the segmentation of several main active faults in later Quaternary or Holocene in Sichuan province and uses re-occurence probability modle to predict the re-occurence probabilities of strong earthquakes on every segment in the next 30 years. The result of this study showed that earthquakes with M=7. 0 or greater may happen along the Qiajiao segmemt, Qianning segment and Selaha segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone the segment from Xichang to Mianning and Yiejidong segment of the Anninghe fault zone, earthquakes with M=6 or greater may happen along the segment from Maowen to Caopo of the Longmenshan fault zone and Xiaoyanjing segment of the Anninghe fault zone.