摘要
本文提出了一种利用１０年尺度地震危险性（地震发生概率的空间分布）预测结果进行１０年尺度地震烈度发生概率估计的方法。并用此方法计算了全国２３１６个城镇不同地震烈度（Ⅵ─Ⅹ）的发生概率。该结果可以用于相应时间尺度的地震损失预测、地震保险和防灾规划等。该方法也适用于利用短期地震预报结果（以预测单元地震发生概率表示），进行场地地震烈度发生概率预测。
A method of estimation for ocuurence probability of earthqauke intensity at a given site from the results of ten-year scale earthquake prediction discrbled with probality of ocurrence in given'prediction cell'is proposed in this paper. 2316 cities and towns in China were analysesed by using this method. The probability of intensity Ⅵ-Ⅹ were given for every city. These results can be used for the earthquake insurence, loss estimation and planning of disaster protection.
出处
《中国地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第4期310-314,共5页
Earthquake Research in China
基金
国家地震局85重点项目
国家自然科学基金
