地震危险综合评判的分量分析方法

Method of Component Analysis for Synthetic Evaluation of Seismic Risk

地震危险性评判，通常需要将多种方法的结果加以综合。为了去除各种方法中可能的重复信息，并对各种方法对危险性评判结论的重要程度进行合理的度量，使综合的结果更加合理，我们引入了分量分析方法。本文首先介绍了分量分析方法的基本原理，其次阐述了该方法在地震危险性综合评判中的应用，最后给出了华北北部中长期地震危险性预测的一个计算实例。

It is usually necessary to consider all results obtained by various methods whenevaluating seismic risk. In order to remove the duplicate information in those results and to determine suitable weight used to present the importance of those methods to make the synthetic result reasonable, the component analysis methodology is introduced in this paper. The basic principles of this method are mentioned firstly, and then the usage of this method in synthetic evaluation of the future seismic risk is explained, in the last a practical example of medium and long term seismic risk prediction in the northern region of North China is put forward.