摘要
利用长期进行的癌症发病、死亡登记报告资料进行了系统动态分析。根据癌症发病率（死亡率）时间序列变化趋势，建立灰色系统理论模型，进而对北京地区２００１年癌症流行趋势做出预测。分析结果表明，到２００１年北京地区癌症发病率、死亡率呈逐年上升趋势。各部位恶性肿瘤构成比将发生很大变化。肺癌、女性乳癌将出现迅速升高，肝癌、肠癌亦呈上升趋势。食管癌、宫颈癌将持续下降，胃癌开始出现下降趋势。根据预测结果，对癌症控制策略进行了分析，并对防治对策提出具体建议。
For Cancer Research Cancer incidence and mortality data in a
long period ,were analyzed systematically.On the basis of the trend ofcancer incidence(or
mortality),a grey-system model wasestablished to determine the epidemic trend for cancer
mor-tality of Beijing in 2001.The result indicated that the inci-dence and mortality of cancer in
Beijing will increase annu-ally up to 2001.The composition of various malignanttumer will
change notably.Rapid increase will occure inlung cancer and breast cancer for females. Liver
cancer andcolon-rectal cancer will also increase. Cancers of esopha-gus and cervix uteri will
steadily decline. Stomach cancerbegin to decrease. Using the prediction result,the strategyof
cancer control was analysed,and detail suggestions tothe method of cancer prevention and
treatment was made.
出处
《中国慢性病预防与控制》
CAS
1995年第2期69-72,共4页
Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases
关键词
癌
预测
控制
对策
Cancer Prediction Control Strate-gy
