1991至1993年全国肾综合征出血热监测点疫情监测结果分析

Analysis of Results of Surveillance on Epidemics of HFRS in HFRS Surveillance Spots in China from 1991 to 1993

本文总结了全国肾综合征出血热（HFRS）监测点1991～1993年进行人间疫情和动物间疫情监测结果。继1990年全国HFRS监测点工作总结后，又取得新成绩，进一步证实人间和动物间疫情空间分布的不均衡性和相对稳定性规律；论证了不同类型疫区均具有周期性和季节性流行特点；通过动物疫情监测，进一步阐明我国野外主要传染源是黑线姬鼠，居民区主要传染源为褐家鼠，对其它一些数量较多、带病毒率较高小兽的传染源作用，亦应加强研究；研究证实，HFRS主要传染源种群数量多、密度大、带病毒率高，其数量常因年度、季节、地区有较大波动，但又相对稳定：进一步证实疫区主要传染源的带病毒鼠指数大小与当地HFRS发病率高低呈一致性关系。由此提示，在流行高峰前，以当地主要传染源的带病毒鼠指数（密度×带病毒率）作为指标，可预测流行趋势或流行强度。

This article Summarizes the results of surveillance on epidemics of HFRS in human and animals in HFRS surveillance spots in China from 1991 to 1993．New achievements were obtained after summation of the surveillance spot work in China in 1990.The regular pattern of unequilibrium and relative stability of the space distribution of epidemics in human and animals was further confirmed.The epidemic features of periodicity and seasonality of different types of epidemic areas were proved.That Apodemus agrarius was the main source of infection in fields and Rattus norvegicus was the main source of infection in residential areas was further expounded. The role of sources of infection played by some other small animals with rather large quantities and rather high virus-carrying rates should be studied with effort.It was confirmed that the quantity of population of the main source of infection of HFRS with large quantity, high density and high viruscarrying rate fluctuated in different years, seasons and areas, however,it was a1so rolatively stable. The consistency between the index of virus－carrying rat as the main source of infection in epidemic areas and the morbidity in local areas was further confirmed. Therefore, it is proposed that the virus－carrying rat as the main of infection in local area before the epidemic peak (density×viru-scarrying rate)serves as the index for prediction of the trend or the epidemic intensity.