动车检修基地安全风险的综合评价研究

Risk Comprehensive Evaluation of an EMU Maintenance Depot in Safety

目前,我国客运专线上运行的动车组时速已达350km/h,这对动车组的安全有着非常高的要求。作为动车安全、可靠运营的前提,动车检修基地有着重要意义。对动车检修基地安全风险进行全面系统分析,并在此基础上,对其安全状况进行综合评价,有助于提高动车检修基地的安全管理能力和安全水平。本文通过对动车检修基地实地调查并结合系统工程学理论建立了动车检修基地安全风险层次结构。提出用三角模糊数来表征专家判断信息,并构造出各层次的三角模糊数互补判断矩阵;根据模糊层次分析法,得出各影响因素的重要性排序。针对影响因素的模糊性,构建了模糊综合评价模型,并结合实例探讨了该方法的可行性。

At present,China's EMU running speed has reached 350km/h,the EMU's security requirement is very high.As a premise of EMUS's security and reliable operation,an EMU maintenance depot is of great significance.The safety risks of the EMU maintenance depot should be analyzed comprehensively,and on this basis the safe condition of the EMU maintenance depot should be evaluated.This work could improve the depot security management ability and safety level.Based on investigation of the EMU maintenance depots on the spot and combined with the system engineering theory,an EMU maintenance depot safety risk hierarchy was established,in which the expert judgment information was expressed with the triangular fuzzy numbers,and the triangular fuzzy complementary judgment matrix of every hierarchy was established.According to the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,the order of importance of the influence factors was worked out.Aiming at the fuzziness of the influence factors,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was established,and the feasibility of the method was proved with an example.