咸宁市耕地时空演变及变化驱动力研究

Study on Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Cultivated Land and Its Driving Force in Xianning

耕地的变化是国内外研究的热点与焦点,其数量的多少和质量的好坏关系到一个国家的粮食安全、经济发展和社会进步等各个方面。该文以咸宁市为例,利用耕地数量变化的时间序列模型、动态度模型和垦殖指数变化模型,对耕地的时空演变特征进行定量研究,并应用相关分析法、主成分分析法及回归分析法对耕地演变及驱动力进行分析,得出研究结论,并针对不同的驱动力因子提出相应的对策建议。

Taking Xianning city as an example,this paper quantitatively studied the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land by using the time series model,dynamic degree model and cultivation index change model of the cultivated land area,and the driving force of cultivated land evolution was analyzed by means of correlation analysis,principal component analysis and regressive analysis.The results showed that the total cultivated land area in Xianning city was decreasing,changing sharply in the northeast and weakly in the south.The driving factors of the changes included the economic development,internal structure adjustment of agriculture,the increase of population and urbanization.Based on the above results,this paper proposed corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.