大气水文耦合模式在洪水预报中的应用研究

Review on Coupling Atmospheric and Hydrological Model and Its Application in Flood Forecasting

在简介数值天气预报模式和水文模型发展历程的基础上,综述了数值预报与水文模型的耦合模式在洪水预报中的研究进展,指出了耦合的关键技术和应用中存在的不足,并探讨了将大气水文耦合模式应用于洪水预报时应着重提高降水预报的精度、进一步完善降水预报的评定方法及增加预报的不确定性分析。

Based on briefly introducing the development history of numeric weather prediction models and hydrological models,coupling numeric prediction and hydrological model and its application in flood forecasting are summarized.The key technologies and shortcomings in applications are pointed out.Finally,it puts forwards that much attempt must be focused on the following aspects in the future to improve the reliability of flood forecasting by using the coupled forecasting model: raising the precision of precipitation forecasting;making a better criterion for assessment the results of precipitation forecasting and adding uncertainty analysis of forecasting.