灰色自记忆模型在杭州市年降水量序列中的应用

Application of Gray Self-memory Model to Annual Precipitation Sequence in Hangzhou City

将灰色微分方程与自记忆函数相结合构建灰色自记忆模型,并对杭州市年降水量序列进行拟合和预测,采用逐步回归周期分析法提取该序列的周期项后,再对残差序列建立灰色自记忆模型。结果表明,采用残差序列建立的模型,模拟和预测精度大幅提高。

By combining the grey differential equation with self-memory function,gray self-memory model is established for forecasting and fitting annual precipitation in Hanzhou City.Stepwise regression cycle analysis is applied to extract periodic component of the sequence.And then the gray self-memory model is established with the obtained residual sequence.The results show that the proposed model improves simulation and prediction accuracy greatly.