摘要
以黄河万家寨水库为例,采用Copula函数构建洪峰和洪量的联合分布模型,随机抽样模拟洪峰和洪量系列并转化为洪水过程线,同时考虑泥沙淤积和泄流能力不确定性影响,在给定汛限水位和调洪规则下调洪演算模拟洪水。结果表明,水文因素的随机性、库容与水位关系的不确定性是万家寨水库防洪风险的主要影响因素,泄流能力不确定性对水库泄洪影响不明显,并获得了各汛限水位方案下水库的防洪风险率,为万家寨水库前汛期汛限水位选择提供了参考依据。
Taking Wanjiazhai Reservoir in the Yellow River for an example,Copula function is applied to establish the joint distribution model of peak flow and flood volume.The series of peak flow and flood volume are simulated by random sampling method and changed into flood hydrograph.At the same time,considering the uncertain influence of sediment accumulation and discharge capacity,reservoir flow routing is used to simulate flood with the given flood control water level and regulations.The results show that the hydrological uncertainty and the uncertain relationship between storage capacity and the water level are major contribution factors to the flood control risk while the uncertain discharge capacity is indistinctively influence of reservoir flood discharge,and the probability distribution of risk rate is obtained under the various schemes of flood control water level.Thus,it provides reference for choice of flood control water level for Wanjiazhai Reservoir.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2010年第8期37-39,共3页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助重点项目(50839005)
