北京天津地区近51a降水变化特征分析

Feature Analysis of 51 Years Precipitation Change in Beijing and Tianjin Area

以北京、天津两个气象站近51 a的日降水资料为例,采用Mann-Kendall法和小波分析法分析了两地区的降水变化特征。结果表明,近51 a来两地区年降水量与汛期降水量呈下降趋势,非汛期降水量呈上升趋势,并由两地区降水变化的趋势性和周期性可获得降水序列变化规律,也可为中长期水文预报提供依据,更可为水资源可持续开发提供参考。

Based on the daily precipitation data of 51 years time series in Beijing and Tianjin weather stations,the features of precipitation change are analyzed by using methods of Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis.The results show that annual precipitation and precipitation in wet season in both regions has downtrend;however,precipitations in dry season are increased in the past 51 years.The fluctuation regularity of series is obtained by analysis of the tendency and periodicity of precipitation change.Thus,it provides valuable reference for mid-long term hydrologic forecasting and sustainable development and utilization of water resources.