郓城县畜禽粪尿排放量估算及风险预测

Livestock manure emission estimates and risk prediction in Yuncheng County

利用统计资料和文献数据,确定粪尿资源的计算参数和各种畜禽粪便折算猪粪当量系数,计算出2000年至2006年的郓城县猪粪当量数。在猪粪当量的基础上,进一步利用GM(1,1)模型,对未来十年的家畜粪尿负荷预警值进行预测。结果表明:2000年至2006年,郓城县家畜粪尿排放量总体上呈上升趋势,在2004年达到最高值464.84万t,警报级别也由Ⅳ级变为污染严重的Ⅴ级水平;未来10年,郓城县家畜粪尿负荷警报级别仍是污染严重的Ⅴ级水平,家畜粪便的污染威胁程度以约1.29%的速度递增,逐年加剧。

The computational parameter and statistical methods of pig fecal equivalent of the livestock and poultry manure in Yuncheng County is determined in the current project based on statistical data and literatures,and pig excrement equivalent number from 2000 to 2006.Based on pig fecal equivalent,we forecast poultry excrement load of early warning value for future ten years by using GM(1,1) the model.The result indicates that the livestock manure emissions in Yuncheng County assumed the trend of escalation from 2000 to 2006,which reached 4 648 400 tons in 2004.Accordingly,the load alert level of livestock and poultry manure becomes Ⅴfrom Ⅳ,which is more serious pollution.The load alert level will remain at level Ⅴin the next 10 years.Moreover,the pollution threat degree of livestock and poultry excrement actually assumes the tendency of intensifying,about 1.29 percent per year.