宜宾市禾谷缢管蚜发生量与气象因子的关系

The Relationship of the Meteorological Factors and Occurrence Quantities of Rhopalosiphum Padi in Yibin City

为研究小麦蚜虫科学预测方法,掌握宜宾市禾谷缢管蚜发生量与气象因子的关系,根据宜宾市1986～2006年间小麦禾谷缢管蚜发生与气象历史资料,应用相关统计分析、逐步回归分析等方法,分析气象因子与蚜虫发生量的关系:在月均温、月降水量、月相对湿度、月日照等气象因子中,影响高峰期蚜量的主要气象因子是年前11月均温X1(r=0.478*),2月均温X2(r=-0.475*),年前10月降水量X3(r=0.518*).年前11月相对湿度X4(r=0.610**),在上述因子中,影响高峰期蚜量Y的主导因子是年前11月月均相对湿度(X4,%),且该因子达到极显著水平.建立有关气象因子的禾谷缢管蚜高峰期蚜量的逐步回归预测模型为:Y=-113298.243+1841.011X1+80.364X3+1066.282X4,R=0.842,Sy=3539.66670.该发生量预测模型经过2005年、2006年连续2年试报正确.

The current situation of the wheat s producing and the occurrence with a forecast in Yibin was considered,using the historical data of the occurrence quantity in Yibin s wheat aphid and meteorological phenomena,during the 20 years from 1986 to 2006,including the month-average temperature,the raining quantities,the relative humidity,and the sunlight-moonlight.The relationship between the meteorological factors and the occurrence quantity of aphid is that: Among the factors,the primary factors affecting the h...