技术开发与经济增长的互动关系——基于省级Panel数据的经验分析

Technological Development and Economic Growth——An Analysis Based on Panel Data from Provinces of China

运用以省级行政区为横截面单元的Panel数据,分析了技术开发与经济增长之间的互动关系.分析表明,经济增长对技术开发的直接作用点在于推动R&D的增长上面,且作用时间是滞后1年的.R&D对经济增长的促进作用是通过生产专利技术而间接实现的,其最后作用于经济增长的时间要滞后到3～5年以后.值得注意的是,一般科技成果与经济增长之间没有直接的作用关系,而仅有间接的影响关系,这种间接的影响是通过R&D与专利技术之间的关系来传递的.经济增长与技术开发之间的互动关系没有表现出明显的地区差异.研究方法主要采用Panel数据的差分计量经济模型.

The dynamic relationships between technological development and economic growth was tested applying the panel data from provinces of China,which indicated the impacts of economic growth upon technological development are indirect,cycled and lagged in time periods,and vice versa.Concretely,the past growth of GDP drives the current growth of R&D,the past growth of R&D drives the current growth of patents,and the past growth of patents drives the current growth of GDP.And there are no significant effects among different regions in the dynamic patterns above.