货币政策价格效应的有效性研究

Research on the Efficiency of Price Effect of Monetary Policy

利用1998年第一季度到2010年第四季度的经济金融季度数据,以贷款规模作为我国货币政策的中介目标,运用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法对我国货币政策价格效应的有效性,尤其是货币政策在抑制通货膨胀方面的有效性进行了实证分析。结果表明,货币政策的价格效应显著且存在时滞;与货币供应量相比,贷款规模更适合作为我国货币政策的中介目标。

The empirical study is based on the efficiency of price effect of monetary policies in China,especially on that of control of inflation,which employs such methods as vector autoregression model(VAR),impulse response function(IRF) and variance decomposition taking the loan size as the intermediate target of monetary policies by use of the quarterly economical and financial data from the first quarter,1998 to the fourth quarter,2010.It is indicated in the above study that the price effect of monetary policies is obvious but delayed,and the loan size is more suitable to the intermediate target of monetary policies compared with the monetary supply.