黄河干流径流量和输沙量阶段性分析

Stage Analysis of Runoff and Annual Sediment of Main Stream of the Yellow River

阶段性是描述河流水沙丰枯变化持续长度的主要特征。利用"中国河流泥沙公报"数据,运用Mann-Kendall方法(简称M-K检验方法)、距平累积曲线法和以自然年代为阶段分析黄河干流径流量和输沙量的变化,探讨黄河干流水沙变化的阶段性。数据系列至2008年,大多数数据长达50多年。结果表明:近50多年来,黄河干流径流量和输沙量均具有逐年代显著减少的变化趋势;M-K检验表明,径流量突变点唐乃亥站出现在1994年,兰州、头道拐、龙门、潼关站径流量突变点均在1990年,花园口和高村站径流量突变点在1986年;利用距平累积曲线分析黄河干流径流量和输沙量同步变化可以分为丰水丰沙期、丰水枯沙期、枯水枯沙期和枯水丰沙期等4个时期。

The stage is an important character to describe runoff and sediment change in the river during long period.The variation of runoff and sediment in main stream of the Yellow River are analyzed by using Mann-Kendall method,accumulation deviation method on basis of the latest 50 years data published in the China Gazette of River Sedimentation.The results showed that runoff and annual sediment of Main Stream of the Yellow River were dropping obviously over the past 50 years;The Mann-Kendall test indicated catastrophe point of runoff in Tang Nai Hai station was 1994,catastrophe point of runoff in Lan Zhou,Tou Dao Guai,Long Men and Tong Guan station was 1990,and catastrophe point of runoff in Hua Yuan Kou and Gao Chun station was 1986.The runoff and sediment in main stream of the Yellow River had similar change trend which could be divided four obvious periods according to analysis of accumulation deviation method.