摘要
对我市10年的婴儿死亡率,用最小一乘法建立了对数曲线模型,y=22.8-9.3806Lgx,用于婴儿死亡率的预测。结果优于最小二乘法。理论值与实际值的相关系数r为0.8079,并预测我市1995年婴儿死亡率达12.3‰,比1990年下降16.3％;2000年婴儿死亡率为10.4‰,比1990年下降29.3％。
With regard to the infant mortality of our city in ten years,the logarithm curve model (y=22. 8?. 380 6LgX) was established was forecasted the infant mortality by the method of least multiplication. In the result this method is better than she method of least sguares. The correlative coefficient ' r' of between theoretical and real value is 0. 8079. Then Forecast of infant mortality of bur city in 1995 will be 12. 3‰,This rate will decline 16. 3% than 1990. The rate in 2000 will be 10. 4‰. It will deline 29. 3% than 1990.
关键词
最小一乘法
婴儿死亡率
预测
Method of least multiplication Infant mortality Forecast
