人民币汇率制度改革:回归有管理的浮动

The Reform of RMB Exchange Rate System:Return to Managed Floating

在人民币汇率制度改革过程中,确定汇率形成机制变革和汇率水平变化的优先次序至关重要。本文认为:机制改革优先,并且在改革过程中始终重视汇率稳定,应当是人民币汇率制度改革的基本战略。回归有管理的浮动汇率制度,是实施这一战略的适当选择。在回归有管理的浮动汇率制的过程中,货币错配构成我们的主要风险。为了有效管理这一风险,中国应保持较高水平的外汇储备,在稳步推行资本项目放松管制过程中加强针对货币错配问题的审慎性监管,实施稳健的宏观经济政策,促进资本市场发展。

In the process of the reform of RMB exchange regime, setting priority between the mechanism reform and the change of the parity of RMB is of most important. This paper suggest that the reform of the mechanism of RMB exchange rate should go first, with much attention been paid in stabilizing exchange rate all the way. Returning to the managed floating system is obviously the appropriate selection for China. To deal with the problem of the mismatch of money, which constitute the main risk exposure for the reform of the RMB exchange regime, a series of policies, including to hold relative high level international reserves, strengthen prudent monitoring and regulating to the money mismatch in the process of liberalizing of the capital account, carry on a steady macro-economy policy, and speed up the development of the capital market, should be taken.