中国制造业集聚程度变动趋势实证研究

A Positive Research on Fluctuation Trend of China's Manufacturing Industrial Agglomeration Degree

制造业是集群特征最为明显的产业。本文利用Ellision和Glaeser建立的产业地理集中指数和自定义的五省市集中度对中国20个制造行业1993、1997、2002、2003年的集聚程度进行了精确测定。结果表明,1993—1997年集聚程度有所下降,1997—2002—2003年集聚程度呈增长趋势。集聚程度的提高是主要的变动方向和发展趋势。集聚程度由高到低的行业分布依次为:技术密集型产业———资本密集型产业———劳动密集型产业。地域分布极不平衡,江苏、广东、山东、浙江、上海五省市集中度很高,西部边远地区则远远落后,两极分化严重。总体上看,制造业的集聚程度与工业增长表现出较强的正相关性。

Manufacturing Industry is the most representative one of all kinds of industrial clusters. The paper measures the agglomeration degree of China＇ s twenty manufacturing industries in 1993, 1997, 2002 and 2003 by means of the index of industry concentration constructed by Ellision and Glaeser and concentration degree of the regions whose manufacture sales incomes rank the top five. The conclusion indicates that the agglomeration degree descended from 1993-1997 and ascended from 1997-2002-2003. The raise of the agglomeration degree is the main development trend. The industries are sorted to the following categories： technology intensive industry-capital intensive industry-labor intensive industry by the descending agglomeration degree. The regional distribution is sharply unbalanced and polarization is serious. As a whole, the agglomeration degree of manufacturing industry has a strong positive correlation with the industry growth.