税收超常增长的再认识

Reconsideration of Over-Growth of Tax

本文首先对税收超常增长给出一个简要界定,意在从量上对税收的超常增长有一个再认识,以区别“超常增长”和“正常增长”。在此基础上对超常的增长从其来源结构上进行分解,以便于更好地对增长的原因和趋势进行分析和预测;其次对超常增长的原因进行分类与概括,并认为应将增长总体区分为实增和虚增两大部分;最后分析各种不同的原因所引致的税收增量的变化规律,并据此对税收超常增长的趋势进行预测。

This paper begins with a brief definition of over-growth of tax in order to get an idea of it in quantity and distinguish it from normal-growth. And on the basis of it, the increment of tax was decomposed from its structure of source for further analysis of its cause and prediction of its trend. And then, the cause of over-growth was classified and generalized to show true growth and false growth. Finally, after analyzing the law of change of all kinds of cause, the paper gives a simple model to predict the trend of over-growth of tax.