随机局部弹性及其在利润预测中的应用

Stochastic partial elasticity and its application in profit forecast

利用文[1]提出的随机局部弹性理论,针对企业利润预测问题,研究了产品的产销售量和销售价格同时为连续型随机变量时,利润对销售量和销售价格的随机局部弹性．给出了利润弹性的分布函数和概率密度函数,讨论了销售量和销售价格的变化对利润弹性的影响．进一步讨论了利润弹性的经济意义．通过实例研究了当销售量和销售价格服从某种分布时,利润弹性的变化范围及在该变化范围的可信度．

Using stochastic partial elasticity theory in [ 1 ], the profit forecast of enterprise is considered. Stochastic partial elasticity of profit for sales volume and selling price of the production is researched, under the condition that sales volume and selling price is continuous random variables. Its joint distribution function and probability density function are given. The influence of the change of sales volume and selling price on profit elasticity is studied. Further, the economic meaning of the profit elasticity is discussed. An example is given to show the profit elasticity change range and reliability when sales volume and selling price of the production obeys a certain distribution.