城市土地需求分析

Urban Land Demand Analysis

本文介绍城市土地需求预测的分析技术。城市土地需求预测的一般逻辑是:(1)首先根据城市功能预测住宅、工业和商业、公共空间所需的城市建筑空间需求;(2)根据市场或城市规划以及城市发展政策,确定城市发展强度;(3)最后确定土地发展参数。本文介绍的比例参数和线性外推方法简单、成本低,对数据要求不高,因此对中小城市或地区,特别是发展稳定的地区,是一个相对比较可行并且可靠的方法。

This paper illustrates simple techniques that can be used to forecast land demand for residential, industrial and commercial, and open space. The general logic to forecast land demand is （ 1 ） first forecast need structure space for residential, industrial and commercial, and open space is driven by different market forces; （2） development density determined by markets or planning regulation will be used to calculate the demand for land; and （3） other development parameters such as development multipliers will be used to adjust the final demand for land. Generally, forecast techniques introduced here are simple, but they can be as valuable and reliable as complicated ones such as input-output and economic models for many small regions or cities.