新疆生产建设兵团农业风雹灾害风险评估

Estimation on the Risk of Agricultural Wind and Hail Disasters in Xinjiang Group Company of Production and Construction

针对干旱地区历史风雹灾情资料系列较短,用传统的统计模型进行风险估计精度不高。应用信息扩散的模糊数学方法,提出风雹灾害风险评估的实用方法,并以新疆生产建设兵团为例,进行风雹灾害风险估计。实践证明,这些研究对提高农业灾害的管理水平具有重要意义。

The reclaimed areas of Xinjiang Group Company of Production and Construction are extensively distributed in all the prefectures, autonomous prefectures and counties in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China Most of the reclaimed areas are located in the arid areas and the zones with vulnerable ecological environment, and the frequent occurrence of strong wind and hail disasters is an important factor affecting the agricultural production and economic development in the reclaimed areas. According to the “Statistical Yearbook” of Xinjiang Group Company of Production and Construction, the average annual disaster area of strong wind and hail disasters in Xinjiang Group Company of Production and Construction was 110.03 hm^2 during the period from 1989 to 2001, which occupied 12.2% of the total area of crops, especially the disaster area of strong wind and hail disasters has been gradually enlarged since the mid-and late-1990s. The strong wind and hail disasters occur mainly in the key growth period of cotton, however, the cotton-growing area in Xinjiang Group Company of Production and Construction is increasingly enlarged. Thus, the disaster area of strong wind and hail disasters is continuously enlarged in Xinjiang Group Company of Production and Construction in recent years. In order to reduce the strong wind and hail disasters, some prevention measures are taken. According to the actuality that there are not enough historical data about strong wind and hail disasters in such arid area and the inappropriate risk estimation using the traditional statistical models, in this paper an information diffusion fuzzy mathematical method is introduced, and a practical way of hail disaster risk estimation is put forward. A case study on the estimation of strong wind and hail disasters is carried out in Xinjiang Group Company of Production and Construction, and the application reveals that the study results derived by using this method accord with the actuality and are significant for raising the management level of agricultural disasters.