摘要
风险分析是油气勘探项目投资决策的最关键部分。勘探经济评价中的储量、开发、采油和财务参数具有很大的不确定性,如果这些参数选取确定值,评价结果唯一性与勘探阶段的高风险相互矛盾。本文运用蒙特卡罗模拟进行风险分析,对勘探阶段的所有主要不确定因素的概率分布特征和概率值进行详细分析,力求不漏掉任何一种可能,通过蒙特卡罗模拟得出其所有可能值,最后运用这些模拟值和其他确定的参数进行勘探项目的经济评价,得出各种因素组合的经济评价结果和评价指标的概率分布值,量化了勘探参数和评价指标的风险。
Tbe risk analysis is the most crucial element in the investment decision-making of oil gas exploration project. The parameters for reserves, exploitation, oil recovery and financial affairs are indeterminate. If these parameters are determined, the uniqueness of evaluation result is contrary to the bigh risk of exploration. Tbis paper analyzes the distribution cbaracteristics of probability and the probability value by Montekaro simulation, all possibilities are simulated. And all possibilities can be gained by Montekaro simulation. Finally, the economic evaluation results are educed wbich involved all element combination tbrougb economic evaluation of oil-gas exploration project witb numerical simulation values and other certain parameters. By this way, tbe distributing characteristic of probability of evaluation guideline can be educed, the risk of oil-gas exploration parameters and evaluation guideline can he quantified as well.
关键词
勘探项目
经济评价
风险分析
参数
exploration project
economic evaluation
risk analysis
parameters
