灰色模型GM(1,1)模型在电力市场分析预测中的应用

Application of Grey Model GM(1,1) in Analysis and Prediction of Electric Market

电力市场分析预测,采用灰色模型GM(1,1),通过语言、网络、量化、动态及优化等五个模型,对具体负荷进行预测。其负荷预测灰色模型的建立,需不断的将下一阶段中所得的结果回馈,经过多次循环往复,才能使整个模型逐步趋于完善实现函数逼近,建立精准模型。并以某地历年三月的负荷为例,预测并验证了负载的精度。

For the analysis and predict of electric market, the of Grey model GM （1, 1） was adopted, the concreted load is predicted through such five models as language, network, quantizing, trends and optimizing, etc. About establishment of the Grey mode for load forecast, the result obtained in the next stage is returned continuously. Repetitive execution of circles in many times, and it make the whole model tend towards soundness to realize the approximation of function progressive, more accurate model is set up. Taking load of March in every years in an area as an example, and the accuracy of load was predicted and verified.