世界液化天然气运输市场回顾与展望

The LNG market

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The natural gas market is one of thefastest growing sectors of the energyindustry. While pipeline natural gas remains the primary method oftransporting gas, gas shipped in LNG form now accounts for over27% of total trade, compared to just 6.5% in 1970. LNG demandgrowth over the last ten years has averaged 7.3% per annum andover the last five years it has been even better at 8.4%. LNG demandin 2003 grew 13% while there was also a surge in demand from theòmatureó Japanese market due to the shut down of nuclear reactorsand continued rapid growth in the Spanish market.The global population growth, which is increasing at a rate of90 million people per year, coupled with the continued demand growthin the power sector, and the quest for cleaner energy, are expected tobring about a continued growth in LNG demand. Not only will LNGdemand grow on an absolute basis, but it will grow on a relativebasis as it takes an increasingshare of the world energymix. The economics of LNGhave seen a transformation inrecent years by a significantreduction in costs. New gasfinds, improved technology,greater efficiency, largertrain sizes and intensifiedcompetition along the LNGsupply chain has made LNGincreasingly competitive.While shipping costs willco nt in ue to be a k eychallenge to the future LNGindustry, with improvedt e c h n o l o g y , f u r t h e rderegulation in the gasm a r k e t , i n c r e a s e dcompetition among bothshipowners and shipbuilders,we perceive there will be acontinued reduction in LNGtransportation costs. Thereare many reasons behind theadvance of the short-termmarket. However, the overall cost reduction of an LNG project meansthat both the buyers and sellers have less incentive to lock in to long-term contracts, and suppliers don?t necessarily need full capacity salesto turn a profit. Another reason for the increase in the short-termmarket is that buyers are demanding a more flexible approach toprocurement and cheaper supplies. This has lead LNG buyers tosearch for an alternative to the long-term inflexible contracts. This shows that the short-term market is almost at a stage of self-perpetuation. A need for cheaper supplies, more flexible procurementand reduced project costs will continue to see the short-term marketgrow at the expense of longer fixed contracts. This new marketstructure will bring enhanced profits and increased opportunities forthe shipping industry as well.