有效消费制度命题与刺激消费的效果评价

The Hypotheses of Effective Consumption Institutions and Performance Appraisal of Stimulating Consumption in China Since 1998

能有效发挥消费制度功能的制度是好的消费制度。通过对消费制度本质和功能的简单分析,提出了有效消费制度命题。在此基础上,评价了中国刺激消费的效果。本文的分析表明,刺激消费政策是有效的。但必须正视消费倾向仍然偏低、消费率持续走低,人与自然、经济和社会失衡加剧,财政赤字及其占GDP的比重持续上升,农村居民整体偏低的消费结构与教育、医疗的高额支出对扩大消费的挤出效应等问题。

A good consumption institution is the one that can work efficiently in functions. By analyzing the attributes and functions of consumption institutions, this paper puts forward hypothesis of valid consumption institutions. And then the performance of stimulating consumption is appraised. The study points out that the policy of stimulating consumption in China has been valid since 1998. However, the following facts should be paid enough attention to： peoples intention to consume is lower than expected, the consumption ratio is declining, the imbalance is increased between man and nature and between economic and social development, the public financial deficit and its share in GDP are increasing continuously, and most rural households have the problems of lower expenditure composition and higher share of medical service, recreation, education and cultural service.