处理配电系统可靠性评估不确定性的未确知数学方法

Unascertained Mathematical Approach to Management of Uncertainty in Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Systems

提出了基于未确知数学理论的处理配电系统可靠性评估不确定性的新方法,即用未确知有理数表示原始参数和可靠性指标。结合网络等值法,给出了基于未确知有理数的配电系统可靠性评估模型和算法。该方法与常规的可靠性评估方法相比,可反映各原始参数不确定性对可靠性指标的综合影响及指标值的可能性分布情况,可以更精细地描述系统可靠性的真实程度,通过一些简化处理后,计算量增加不大;与模糊可靠性评估方法和区间分析方法相比,提供的信息量更大,更充分地反映指标的不确定性,而计算量相当。通过实例说明了该方法的合理性和有效性。

This paper presents a new approach to management of the uncertainties in the reliability evaluation of distribution systems based on the unascertained mathematical theory, in which input parameters and reliability indices are expressed by unascertained rational numbers. By combining unascertained rational number operation with the network-equivalent approach, an algorithm is introduced to calculate the possibility reliability indices of distribution systems. A comparison with the conventional methods shows that the approach is capable of reflecting the general effect of input-parameter-uncertainty on reliability indices and the possibility distribution of indices, which give a more refined degree of truth of system reliability. Also, the simplified approach does not need more calculations than the conventional methods while providing a greater amount of information and reflecting the index uncertainty more sufficiently than the methods of fuzzy mathematics and interval analysis with nearly the same amount of calculation. Also, a numerical example of IEEE RBTS indicates the rationality and effectiveness of the approach proposed.