应用计算机和气象资料预测牧地上捻转血矛线虫（Haemonchus　contortus）数量季节消长的研究

PREDICTIOG POPULATION OF HAEMONCHUS CONTORTUS INFECTIVE LARVAE ON PASTURE FROM METEOROLOGICAL DATA

根据土源性寄生线虫体外发育期间受温度、湿度、季节和宿主动物影响的原理，采用电子计算机对上述多因子和捻转血矛线虫从卵发育到侵袭性幼虫的速度、数量进行分析回归，制定出模拟模型，设计出牧地上该种线虫从印发育到侵袭性幼虫数量的预测预报公式，将气象资料代入公式计算出的侵袭性幼虫季节消长曲线，与牧地上羊体内成虫数量消长曲线相互对比，初步显示可以采用气象资料通过计算机计算处理预测牧地上捻转血矛线虫侵袭性幼虫数量的季节动态，从而为防治措施的制订提供依据。

A simulation model which described the population dynamics of Haemonchuscontortus infective larvae on pasture from meteorological data was constructed. Rate of development of the nematode from egg to the infective stage at different constant temperatures andhumidities and on pasture and the population dynamics of fsecal eggs in every month wereused.The effect of temperature,humidity, season and host were estimated. The population dynamics of infective larvae predicted are suituble to that of adults in sheep and goat.The model could be used in different climate region and will lead to economically efficient controlmeasures.